The parallels between President Trump and Liz Truss, Britain’s shortest-serving prime minister, are growing starker. Ms. Truss triggered market turmoil in 2022 after she proposed sweeping tax cuts that she proposed to pay for with massive government borrowing. Ms. Truss was ultimately doomed by fears of a credit crisis after yields on British government bonds spiked.
Now, yields on U.S. Treasuries are beginning to rise. On Wednesday, in the hours after Mr. Trump’s latest tariffs went into effect, including levies of more than 100 percent on China, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose to as high as 4.5 percent, up from around 3.9 percent a few days ago. The yield on a 30-year bond briefly traded above 5 percent.
Yields are still generally lower than when Mr. Trump was inaugurated, but a sustained sell-off of Treasuries would erase the key difference between the global market response to Mr. Trump’s tariffs and Ms. Truss’s tax cuts. In the immediate aftermath of the president’s tariff announcement, bond yields actually drifted down, even as the stock market plummeted and dollar weakened. This partly reflected expectations for slowing growth, but also served as a reminder of the traditional status of the American bond market as a haven for investors.
Now, that safe-haven status may be crumbling, according to some analysts. At the extreme, that could raise pressure on the Federal Reserve to intervene, which is what the Bank of England did in 2022 to shore up the British bond market.
In Britain’s case, those dramatic events forced Ms. Truss to rescind her proposed tax cuts, and the market chaos subsided. But Ms. Truss’s credibility was destroyed, and she was forced to step down after 44 days in office. Mr. Trump, by contrast, has shown no sign that he plans to reverse the tariffs, and for now, there appear to be few political levers to force his hand.
