Just About Everything That’s Changed Since Congestion Pricing Took Effect

The idea was that many people, faced with a toll, would stop driving into the heart of Manhattan. So far, that appears to have happened.

The Metropolitan Transportation Authority estimates that about 76,000 fewer vehicles per day entered the congestion zone in April than probably would have without the toll. That’s the equivalent of 2.3 million fewer cars for the month, or 12 percent fewer than would have been expected given historical traffic trends.

These numbers are based on the M.T.A.’s best guess of what would have happened without congestion pricing. (The cameras that are now counting cars entering the zone every day weren’t fully installed in January 2024, so we can’t compare exact car counts with this same time last year.)

The Port Authority, which separately controls the tunnels entering Manhattan from New Jersey, released initial data for January showing that 8 percent fewer cars entered through the Lincoln Tunnel, and 5 percent fewer through the Holland Tunnel, compared with January 2024. But the agency has not released data for February and March.

With fewer cars on the road, speeds are up.

Inside the congestion zone, as more workers returned to the office, average speeds had steadily declined since 2021, according to New York City Department of Transportation data that tracks the movement of vehicles licensed by the Taxi and Limousine Commission. Then starting in January of this year, that trend reversed.

An outside analysis from researchers at Stanford, Yale and Google found similar results. They looked at anonymized, aggregated data from trips taken with Google Maps and found that average traffic speeds inside the zone increased by 15 percent in the first two months of congestion pricing. That’s compared with what the researchers estimate would have happened without the toll, given traffic trends in other cities.

Speed improvements have been greatest at the most gridlocked times, during the evening weekday peak.

The Google study found a similar pattern but an even larger effect in the program’s first two months, with speeds inside the congestion zone improving by more than 20 percent during weekday rush hours from 3 p.m. to 7 p.m.

One major fear about congestion pricing is that it would improve traffic in the zone simply by pushing cars and congestion elsewhere. But so far, it appears that hasn’t happened.

According to Department of Transportation data, speeds in adjacent neighborhoods north of 60th Street in Manhattan and just across the river in Brooklyn and Queens, as well as in the rest of the city, have been flat or slightly faster than last year, depending on the time of day.

New Jersey Transit has not released bus speed data, limiting what we know about New Jersey commutes. But many M.T.A. express buses from Staten Island run through New Jersey and cross into Manhattan through the Lincoln Tunnel, sharing the same lanes used by many New Jersey buses and commuters.

Those M.T.A. bus routes went through the Lincoln Tunnel nearly 24 percent faster on average after congestion pricing went into effect.

The researchers using Google Maps data, who were able to analyze New Jersey commutes, found that congestion pricing increased speeds by about 8 percent for drivers making trips from Hudson and Bergen counties into the congestion zone.

The Google study also found consistently faster trips into the congestion zone — with speeds up by about 8 to 9 percent — whether drivers were coming from poorer or richer parts of the region.

That doesn’t address all the concerns of critics who warned that the toll would burden working-class drivers. But it does suggest that those drivers are sharing in the traffic benefits.

While the number of cars on the road is down, transit ridership is up, suggesting many commuters have switched.

From early January through mid-April, compared with the same time last year, ridership has increased on the bus and the subway for the M.T.A. It’s also up on the Long Island Rail Road, the Staten Island Railway and the Metro-North commuter lines that serve the northern suburbs and parts of Connecticut.

On the PATH commuter train that serves New Jersey commuters crossing the Hudson River, ridership is also up — by nearly 6 percent — in the first three months of the year compared with last year. New Jersey Transit, which runs a different rail and bus system into Manhattan, has not shared data, but stated it had “no evidence at this time that congestion pricing is having an appreciable impact on ridership.” (The policy is especially fraught in New Jersey, where officials are suing to stop congestion pricing in federal court.)

The Trump administration has seized on a number of high-profile crimes to paint mass transit as unsafe and a poor substitute for commuters who drive to the city. But on the subway, crime is dropping. In the first three months of 2025, criminal offenses in the subway fell to the second-lowest level in 27 years, with an 18 percent drop in major crime categories, police data shows.

It’s less clear that people are switching to biking. According to Citi Bike, ridership in the bike-sharing program through April 20 is up similarly both inside the congestion zone and citywide, 8 to 9 percent, compared with last year. But Citi Bike has expanded the network over time, making direct trip comparisons with earlier years imperfect.

The Department of Transportation also maintains some bike counters inside the congestion zone that count cyclists on personal bikes and Citi Bikes. Those counters show a very slight decline in trips compared with last year, while counters outside the congestion zone show a small bump in trips. Biking is also more subject to weather, and this past winter was especially cold.

In short, it’s probably too soon to say much about the effects of congestion pricing on biking.

With fewer cars on the road in the congestion zone, there have been fewer car crashes — and fewer resulting injuries. Crashes in the zone that resulted in injuries are down 14 percent this year through April 22, compared with the same period last year, according to police reports detailing motor vehicle collisions. The total number of people injured in crashes (with multiple people sometimes injured in a single crash) declined 15 percent.

Crashes and injuries are also down citywide outside the congestion zone, but by less, suggesting that the tolls could be a factor in the difference.

The story here may largely be about fewer cars creating fewer opportunities for collision. But Philip Miatkowski, senior director for research and policy at Transportation Alternatives, said that less congestion may also be increasing safety in other ways, like less double-parking and blocked intersections, or less road rage.

Data on parking violations suggests that certain types of risky driver behavior are declining. Violations issued within the congestion zone — for infractions like double-parking or parking in no-parking zones — were down nearly 4 percent from January through mid-April compared with last year. Over this time, there was a small increase in violations in the rest of Manhattan.

Vehicle-related noise complaints to the city’s 311 portal dropped by nearly half in the zone from 2024 to 2025. Similar car-related complaints also fell outside the zone, but not as sharply.

The city’s Department of Environmental Protection also operates two noise cameras inside the congestion zone. They detect noises greater than 85 decibels and, like a red-light camera, record the offending vehicle. Between Jan. 5 and April 4 of 2024, the department issued 27 horn-honking summonses. Over that time this year, it issued six, with another eight pending.

Average travel times for the Fire Department’s responses to fires inside the congestion zone dropped by about 3 percent in January through March of this year compared with the same period last year, according to Fire Department dispatch data. These times rose by less than 1 percent in the rest of New York.

It’s probably too early to tell whether the speedup inside the zone is the result of congestion pricing. Travel times can fluctuate year to year, and Fire Department officials cautioned that congestion pricing was only one possible factor.

Average travel times for ambulances had been steadily increasing since the pandemic, according to emergency service dispatch data. Those ambulance times rose again this year, but at a slower rate inside the congestion zone than elsewhere.

One school bus company, NYC School Bus Umbrella Services (NYCSBUS), has found that, compared with last year, the share of buses arriving at schools late has dropped more inside the congestion zone than outside it.

The company calculates that those reduced delays inside the zone have meant that bused students receive more than 30 additional minutes of instruction time per week on average.

NYCSBUS contracts with the city to serve about 10 percent of New York’s bus routes for school-aged kids, so its numbers don’t cover every school bus inside the congestion zone but offer a good sample.

Critics have argued that the toll would scare off tourists and hurt local businesses. So far, there’s not much evidence of that, even as some businesses report signs that declining international tourism and tariffs are starting to pinch.

In March, just over 50 million people visited business districts inside the congestion zone, or 3.2 percent more than in the same period last year, according to the New York City Economic Development Corporation (its estimate tries to exclude people who work or live in the area).

And according to the Times Square Alliance, the number of pedestrian visitors to Times Square through April 22 this year was almost identical — about 21.5 million people — to the number in the same period last year.

Supporters of congestion pricing said it would also create environmental benefits, with fewer polluting cars on the road (and idling in gridlock or circling for parking).

The New York City health department’s readings of PM2.5, one air quality measure, improved citywide the first three months of this year compared with the same period in 2024. The improvement was more pronounced within the congestion zone, but it’s too early to attribute that to the program, or to know if that’s a lasting pattern, experts said.

If a downward trend in emissions showed up over the long term, it would mirror what happened in other cities after they put in congestion pricing. In London, rates of health problems aggravated by car pollution, like asthma, declined.

Critics of congestion pricing have warned that the tolls could harm lower-income commuters who lack access to transit. In response, the M.T.A. has carved out a 50 percent discount on peak tolls for drivers who make less than $50,000 a year. Some drivers can also apply for a tax credit.

But if those workers still feel they can’t afford to commute to the congestion zone, they may over time change jobs or face narrower job prospects. It will take time to track these changes, which could also be influenced by a worsening economic outlook.

In other ways, lower-income workers, who are more likely to use mass transit, stand to benefit from bus and rail investments that will be financed by the toll revenue. Some of the improvements, including new elevators and a more reliable signal system in the subway, are already underway.