The wholesale price of eggs has dropped sharply since the beginning of March after soaring for months, but it may take a few weeks for grocery shoppers to see the decline.
Wholesale egg prices, which is what retailers pay to procure eggs, have fallen to a national average of just over $4 for a dozen large white eggs, down from a peak of more than $8 at the end of February, according to data from the Agriculture Department released last week.
But because eggs typically have a four-week shelf life, it may be the end of March before retail prices start to drop, said Jeremy Horpedahl, an associate professor of economics at University of Central Arkansas. Some stores, he added, may not lower prices until their current inventory sells out.
Economists said that the decline in wholesale prices, which are still above long-term averages, was very likely fueled by a combination of factors: bird flu coming under control, weaker consumer demand, ramped-up supply and producer pricing decisions. The Agriculture Department noted that there had been no significant outbreaks of avian flu in March so far, and economists say any new outbreaks could push up prices again. The virus has forced egg producers to cull tens of millions of hens since late last year.
In February, the retail price of eggs rose 10.4 percent from the previous month, continuing a monthslong climb, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released last week.
Economists noted that prices might not come down evenly across the country. Areas with competing grocery stores might see egg prices fall more quickly, Mr. Horpedahl said, while those dominated by a single chain — with the power to keep prices high for longer — may not. Retail prices may also depend on grocery chains’ strategies, with some opting to keep prices lower to entice customers into stores.
“They can pass the savings of wholesale prices onto us entirely, or not at all, or somewhere in between,” said David Anderson, a professor of economics and business at Centre College in Danville, Ky. High demand for eggs leading up to Easter may keep prices elevated through then, he said.
President Trump, who made lowering grocery prices a key part of his campaign, has jumped on the wholesale price trend, citing the drop in his speech at the Justice Department last week. At the same time, his sweeping tariffs have stoked concern about an uptick in prices for a host of products, including grocery staples.
Egg producers have blamed the spread of avian flu for tighter supplies. United Egg Producers, the industry’s trade association, noted that the industry had lost more than 40 million egg-laying hens in 2024 and 31 million in just the first two months of this year as the virus accelerated.
Mr. Anderson said that bird flu has hit supply in “dramatic ways.” But at the same time, he added, “the industry may see the bird flu epidemic as a cover for additional price hikes that aren’t necessarily needed.”
“Part of it is they’re really dealing with a crisis,” he said. “Part of it might be, ‘Do we have some cover to keep our prices artificially high?’”
The Justice Department is in the early stages of an antitrust investigation looking into whether major egg producers have shared information about pricing and supply that contribute to a spike in prices. Some lawmakers and advocacy groups had previously called for federal regulators to investigate the industry’s pricing practices.